Probabilistic model of anthropogenic electrical safety system

Abstract

This paper discusses the process of creating and automating a model of the anthropogenic safety system functioning of electrical installations which is formed on the basis of four subsystems such as: information support, organizational measures, technical measures and protective means, as well as operational control of anthropogenic safety parameters and diagnostics of the technical condition of electrical installations in the industry. In turn, each of the above subsystems consists of a set of elements included in it. In addition, in the course of functioning, the system interacts with a person who performs the role of the protection subject, controlling individual subsystems and elements. The anthropogenic safety system under consideration is an integral part of a higher-level system – the human-machine system "Man-Electrical Installation-Environment" (H-E-S). During this research, a simulation model for assessing the risk of electrical installations was compiled consisting of parameters characterizing the main components of the human-machine system "H-E-S" such as a person, an electrical installation and the environment. Risk-forming factors are presented in the form of variables and unrelated events, and their final value is represented by a probabilistic model with discrete states. The essence of the developed algorithm is presented in the form of a scheme of information flows and a processor model of work in an automated information system (AIS), the data on the current state of the system processed in this way give an opinion on the effectiveness of the human-machine system "H-E-S" functioning.