Principles of extended microclimatic forecasting of wind energy resources in the agro-industrial complex

Abstract

Wind power plants are often used to improve the quality of power supply to remote and isolated consumers of the agro-industrial complex. The efficiency of their operation is largely determined by the accuracy of forecasting the state of wind energy resources. The average annual specific power of wind flow is considered to be a quantitative characteristic of wind energy resource. In accordance with the known principles of forecasting the state of wind energy resources, the specific power of wind flow takes into account the air density which is taken as a constant value and corresponds to the established normal conditions. Deviation of the values of meteorological parameters of the terrain for real and normal conditions leads to changes in air density which reduces the accuracy of wind energy potential estimation. New principles of extended microclimatic prognosis of wind energy resources are discussed; they allow increasing the accuracy of wind energy potential evaluation by taking into account the dynamics of changes in barometric pressure, air temperature and relative humidity. The results of analyzing the dependence of the average annual specific power of wind flow on the studied microclimatic parameters are presented. A mathematical model that takes into account their influence on the specific power of wind flow is proposed. The evaluation of the degree of influence of barometric pressure, relative humidity and air temperature on the specific power of wind flow by the example of the City of Rubtsovsk of the Altai Region is considered. To improve the accuracy of forecasting the state of wind power resources, the data of observations of meteorological stations during the recent ten years with a set number of counted measurements were used. The comparative evaluation of the calculated values in accordance with the known approaches and the proposed mathematical model showed that the results of calculation of the average annual specific power of wind flow may differ significantly.